Yale Says "Best Estimate" of Endowment Drop Is 25%
Yale President Richard Levin said in a budget letter that Yale estimates its far-flung endowment portfolio to have lost a quarter of its value since June 30th:
It is not our custom to announce the mid-year status of our endowment portfolio, but these unusual circumstances call for a departure from custom. Thanks to the outstanding work of David Swensen and his colleagues in the Investments Office, our endowment has declined significantly less than market indices. Taking into account only the value of marketable securities, our investment return from July 1 through October 31 was a negative 13.4%. But this does not tell the whole story. Our endowment is invested in both marketable securities (chiefly stocks and bonds) and “illiquid” assets, such as real estate and private equity investments that are not traded on a daily basis and are difficult to value with precision. The value of our marketable securities has declined further since October 31, and, even earlier, we began to establish reserves in anticipation of substantial decreases (“write-downs”) in the value of our private equity and real estate investments. As a consequence, our best estimate of the endowment’s value today is $17 billion, a decline of 25% since June 30, 2008, and this is the value we are using for purposes of budget planning. We are also assuming that the endowment will remain flat during the 2009-10 academic year and resume growth after June 30, 2010, at the rate that we have historically used in our budget modeling.
Read the full statement.
View past Yale Endowment Annual Reports. We highly recommend these reports, as they include excellent descriptions of a variety of important investment and portfolio management concepts, including an explanation of Monte Carlo simulations.